The failure of China's Energy Development Strategy 2050 and its impact on carbon emissions

摘要

China is the world's largest energy consumer and emitter of carbon. China's energy development strategy is thus of great significance to the world's energy security and global carbon reduction target. In this study, the implementation of "China's Energy Development Strategy 2050" (EDS2050), which has been in operation since 1985, is investigated. This study analyzes the causes of the failure of EDS2050 and the impacts of that failure on carbon emissions. The results show the following: (1) EDS2050 basically failed in 2010, and the strategic planning values of primary energy consumption and production were underestimated compared with the actual values by 39% and 67%, respectively. (2) Comparing the predicted values of basic parameters in EDS2050 with the actual values, in the production field, the main causes of failure were the underestimation of the economic growth rate and the proportion of non-agricultural industries, while in the living field, the main causes were the underestimation of urbanization and per capita energy consumption in rural areas. Further analyses of various provinces demonstrated that the major factors leading to EDS2050 failure include the economic growth rate, urbanization, population growth, and the growth in car ownership. (3) EDS2050 failure resulted in an increase in carbon emissions in 2010 of 583.50 x 10(6) tc, and increases of per capita carbon emissions reached 46.49-47.04%; carbon emissions per unit of output demonstrated a reduction, which was as a result of technological progress. Improving energy efficiency optimizing energy utilization, and promoting national energy conservation should be highly emphasized in China's future sustainable energy development strategy. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.